Introduction

For pricing teams, actuaries, and product managers navigating the US auto insurance market, California may be a bellwether for nationwide trends. California is the top market for Private Passenger Auto Insurance accounting for ~12%, or $44B in premiums written, out the total market of $359B. But California has also seen the most shifts among competitors in recent years among the top 5 largest P&C markets in the United States:

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Competitive shifts among leading insurers

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While State Farm has held steady at #1, the next four have shifted completely from 2019 with Farmers – a California-based insurer – falling out of the top 5 altogether. Compare this to another top market in the US, New York, which was positively sleepy by comparison:

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State Farm and Allstate swapped places in 2023, and that was it!

But coming back to California, many of these changes were driven by strategic business choices.

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Rate changes and filing activity

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For example, Allstate’s acquisition of National General was likely a major contributor to their jump to #3 in 2021. And although GEICO still serves the California market for auto insurance, they withdrew all agents in 2022 which has likely contributed their gradual decline in market share in recent years.

However, rate change data from Insuraviews indicates that more changes may be ahead for California’s competitive landscape. State Farm increased rates by 21% in 2024 and leads this cohort with cumulative rate changes of +18% year-to-date. Allstate increased rates on average by a whopping 28% in 2024 alone but have only increased by a comparatively modest 7% in 2025. GEICO has also rolled out double-digit increases in recent years but has kept rates steady this year. And “local” players like CSAA, Auto Club, and Farmers have implemented more modest increases.

Taking a look at Insuraviews’ rate filing data, top insurers in California have been slightly less active in their filings this year compared to last with one notable exception at the extremes. Despite low rate increases so far this year, Farmers continues to be the most active in new filings. Allstate and Auto Club held steady year-to-year so far, while CSAA has only filed 1 rate change. And in line with the 0% rate changes, GEICO has not made any filings so far this year.

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Final thoughts

So what can we take away from all of this? State Farm, the market share leader, has been aggressive in increasing pricing perhaps with an eye towards repricing for risk and inflation. For instance, in 2022 the Private Auto Insurance saw net combined ratios over 110% which have fallen to about 95% as of 2024, largely on the back of rate increases. However, after the single largest rate increase among this cohort last year, Allstate has been more restrained in increasing prices. CSAA is a more interesting case, are they making a strategic choice to keep their rates lower or are they a step behind the rest of the market?

But Farmers is by far is the most interesting. Modest price increases against a flurry of filing activity may indicate a more active approach to market segmentation as they shift expenses to riskier customers to position themselves to grow among safer (and consequently less expensive to insure) drivers. Perhaps we’ll see Farmers re-enter the top 5 in coming years, but only time will tell.

Regardless, with volatility like this in top insurance markets, pricing leaders can’t afford to guess. Insuraviews can help you easily track filings and rate changes in near real-time, allowing you to generate rate filing insights like those featured above in minutes, and not days, keeping you a step ahead of the competition.

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Want a strategic edge in insurance pricing and competitive intelligence?  See a preview of the full competitive dashboard by scheduling a demo, or contact sales@insuraviews.com for a complimentary consultation.